Colombia's Presidential Election Hinges on Escalating Internal Conflict and Security Concerns

Colombia stands at a critical juncture, with its upcoming presidential election heavily overshadowed by an escalating and increasingly brutal internal conflict. The pervasive influence of illegal armed groups, a resurgence in violence, and the deep-seated impact of decades of civil strife have thrust security to the forefront of the national discourse, shaping voter sentiment and defining the starkly contrasting visions of the leading candidates. This election is not merely a contest of policy, but a referendum on how the nation will confront the persistent specter of violence that has haunted its population for generations.

The Human Cost of Persistent Conflict

The personal testimonies emerging from the front lines of this conflict paint a harrowing picture. Edilma Martinez Flores, speaking from a support center for displaced persons in Bogotá, recounts a chilling experience: "My brother was murdered for not paying an extortion payment...in front of his children." Her family was forced to abandon their home on the outskirts of Cali after armed criminal groups issued ultimatums, threatening violence against residents who refused to leave. The distribution of leaflets and the subsequent placement of explosives along evacuation routes underscore the organized and ruthless nature of these groups, leaving communities with no recourse but to flee, leaving their livelihoods and homes behind. Edilma's plight is far from an isolated incident. The specter of insecurity has become the dominant concern for many Colombian voters as they head to the polls. The nation's six-decade-long struggle, involving a complex web of armed groups, the state, and drug cartels, has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. However, recent years have witnessed a disturbing intensification, with illegal armed groups roughly doubling their membership in the last five years. This surge includes dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the powerful Clan del Golfo. These organizations have systematically expanded their territorial control over rural areas, which are vital for illicit activities such as drug trafficking and illegal mining.

Divergent Paths to Peace and Security

The presidential candidates present two fundamentally different approaches to addressing this entrenched violence. The campaign itself has been marred by further tragedy, including the assassination of a presidential candidate, numerous homicides, kidnappings, and bombings, amplifying the urgency of the situation. Senator Iván Cepeda, a prominent figure on the left, is largely credited as the architect of the current administration's "total peace" strategy. This approach prioritizes dialogue and negotiation with armed groups. Critics argue that this strategy has faltered, allowing these groups to exploit ceasefires and further consolidate their power. Conversely, supporters co
ntend that such negotiations are crucial for preventing a greater loss of life and offer a path toward de-escalation. Cepeda's past involvement in the landmark 2016 peace accord, which led to the disarmament of thousands of FARC fighters, lends weight to his experience in peace-building efforts. He pledges to pursue "social transformations that the country urgently cries out for," while also committing to a thorough review of the existing peace strategy to implement necessary adjustments.

His principal challenger is Abelardo de la Espriella, a conservative businessman and lawyer who has adopted the moniker "El Tigre" (The Tiger). De la Espriella, who also holds U.S. citizenship, has garnered significant endorsement from former U.S. President Donald Trump. His campaign rallies are often marked by the display of Colombian football shirts by him and his supporters, a tactic that has drawn accusations of politicization from the left. De la Espriella advocates for a far more aggressive stance, proposing the construction of ten "mega-prisons" for gang members, a robust military crackdown, and an immediate cessation of negotiations with armed groups. He has vowed to confront these organizations directly, stating, "Any criminal who does not surrender will be taken down."

Forced Displacement: A Resurging Crisis

The impact of this escalating conflict is vividly illustrated by the surge in forced displacement. Isabelita Mercado Pineda, a government advisor for peace, victims, and reconciliation in Bogotá, reports a staggering 300% increase in forced displacement between 2024 and 2025. "We have not seen displacements like this for the last two decades," she stated, highlighting the severity of the current crisis. Several factors contribute to this alarming trend. Rising cocaine production fuels the coffers of armed groups, enabling their territorial expansion. The vacuum left by the demobilization of FARC fighters in 2016 has not been adequately filled by state forces, creating fertile ground for these groups to reassert their influence. Furthermore, Mercado Pineda points to a perceived deficiency in the government's strategy, which she believes offers too many incentives ("carrots") without sufficient enforcement ("sticks") to deter criminal activity.

The support center for victims in Bogotá serves as a tangible representation of the scale of this humanitarian challenge. Erin Gamboa, originally from the Chocó region on the Pacific Coast, shared the distressing experience of his half-brother being abducted by FARC guerrillas, with no further contact since. "My region is heavily contested; criminal gangs fight over the territory," he explained, detailing the ongoing conflicts between paramilitaries, guerrillas, and FARC factions vying for control of areas rich in illegal mining operations and cocaine trafficking routes.

A couple who preferred to remain anonymous recounted how their small food delivery business became the target of extortion. A man, claiming to be affiliated with the FARC, demanded 5 million pesos (approximately $1,500 USD) from their children. The woman, speaking through tears, described the pervasive growth of crime, lamenting that "you can't go out in peace anymore."

International Influence and Voter Sentiment

The endorsement of Abelardo de la Espriella by Donald Trump has become a focal point of debate, with the left condemning it as foreign interference. This intervention occurs as the United States adopts a more assertive posture towards criminal organizations operating in Latin America. Trump explicitly linked the election outcome to Colombia's future relationship with the U.S., asserting that a de la Espriella victory would ensure "the total support and strength of the United States behind him," while labeling Iván Cepeda a "radical left Marxist."

De la Espriella, who spent his formative years on Colombia's Caribbean coast, retains significant regional support. Maria Luisa Sanchez, a childhood friend and neighbor, described him as a man who has "achieved everything he has set out in life" and possesses "very strong convictions." She believes his "character" and "courage" are precisely what Colombia needs to combat drug trafficking and guerrilla activity. Sandra Caballero, a supporter from a village near Barranquilla, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing de la Espriella's commitment to working with the United States to fight drug trafficking and his refusal to engage in negotiations with criminals, a strategy she believes has proven ineffective over the past four years. She also noted his plans to reform taxes to stimulate job creation and invest in security and healthcare.

The Youth Vote and a Call for Deeper Change

Conversely, Iván Cepeda has found strong traction among younger voters in Colombia. Student Catalina La Grande articulated this demographic's perspective: "Cepeda's proposal for security not only contemplates the coercive forces of the state to stop crime, but also takes into account the structural roots of insecurity - the lack of state presence, poverty, inequality, many young people belonging to criminal groups." This generation is wary of repeating past security models that have yielded victims without offering lasting solutions. They advocate for a "negotiated security" approach, one that harmonizes state repression with robust social programs.

The palpable connection between national sentiment and collective experiences was evident even at a fanzone during Colombia's World Cup opener against Uzbekistan, which the team won 2-1. Young voter Sofía Diaz expressed hope for both her team's and Cepeda's success. "I like Cepeda's proposals; he's against fracking and has fought for the country all his life," she remarked, highlighting the alignment of his platform with her own values. The jubilant atmosphere in Bogotá following the football victory, with cheers and the sound of vuvuzelas, offered a fleeting moment of national unity, underscoring the deep-seated desire for a cohesive and secure future that many hope the election will help to forge.

The challenges facing Colombia are immense, deeply intertwined with its history of conflict. The upcoming election presents voters with a critical choice between two vastly different ideologies, each promising a pathway to security. Whether the nation opts for a firm hand or a more conciliatory approach, the resolution of its internal conflict remains the paramount concern, shaping the lives and futures of its citizens. The outcomes of this election will undoubtedly reverberate across the nation, determining the trajectory of its efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.